The May 1, 2011 mission to find Osama Bin Laden has become one of the most celebrated military mission planning successes in recent memory due to the utilization of a little-known and seldom-used practice called the Red Team.
The mission was a daring raid executed by the courageous members of the U.S. Navy SEAL DEVGRU, also known as SEAL Team Six, especially when considering the potentially disastrous political and diplomatic consequences that would have occurred had the mission failed. In spite of the dangers, the odds, and the loss of one of the two Blackhawk helicopters that delivered the SEALs to the target, the mission to get Bin Laden was an extraordinary mission planning success that continues to inspire awe. The Bin Laden mission was executed by some of the finest warriors that history has ever known. However, aside from skill in the profession of arms, it was the overall tactical planning process that went into the mission that provides an important lesson for planners in all fields - in military, business, or in everyday life.
The Overconfidence Bias
We fall in love with the plans we make. Mission planning is much like giving birth to a child. When the plan is complete, whether developed by an individual or a collaborative team, the planners can step back and congratulate themselves on the genius of the plan that they have created -- such overconfidence is one of many cognitive biases we humans fall prey to.
This is why the practice of utilizing a Red Team is necessary. A Red Team is a simple means to overcome the overconfidence bias and the theory of "groupthink," the need for groups to seek conformity and unanimity in planning and decision making. The mission planning effort that went into the Bin Laden mission was the detailed product of many different planners, but that alone was not enough to ensure success. The tactical planning process had to be subjected to a Red Team.
The Role of the Red Team
For the Bin Laden mission, military planners invited an outside group of experts who were previously unaware of the plan and had not taken part in the mission planning process to comprise what we call a Red Team. A Red Team examines a plan and offers frank criticism of the plan without bias. The Red Team's purpose is to expose flaws or weaknesses in the tactical planning process - to test the plan with dispassionate reason and respectfully offer detailed criticism. However, the planners must accept the criticism humbly, without commenting or defending the plan. It is vital that the planners involved are able to accept and incorporate this criticism, or the practice of utilizing a Red Team will be rendered moot.
Historical Examples of Mission Planning Using Red Teams
The Red Team is not a new concept. In 1962, faced with the threat of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba, President John F. Kennedy utilized a form of the Red Team to great success. He had suffered a terrible and embarrassing debacle in the botched Bay of Pigs Invasion and Kennedy was not going to allow such an error in mission planning to happen again. He began by dividing his Executive Committee in half and tasked each of the two groups to argue for one of two primary options to deal with the threat. One group argued for a naval blockade and the other for an air strike. Kennedy then had the groups switch positions and critique the other group's proposal. The last step in Kennedy's tactical planning process was to ask his brother, Robert Kennedy, and one of his close counsels, Ted Sorenson, to act as a Red Team on each group's proposal. The result was one of the most masterfully played moves during the Cold War - a naval blockade that forced Soviet withdrawal of nuclear missiles from Cuba.
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