Historical Record

Imagine a solar electromagnetic disturbance strong enough to energize telegraph wires independent of their power supplies. Imagine operators transmitting and receiving messages on keys disconnected from their batteries, sustaining random jolts of electricity nonetheless. Imagine the aurora borealis appearing before the wondering eyes of sailors in the Caribbean. This really happened during the well-documented Carrington Event of 1859, a solar super storm that disrupted emerging technologies during the Victorian era.

A 2008 National Academy of Sciences report stated a similar solar event today would have an economic impact on the United States equivalent to sustaining 20 Category 5 hurricanes at the same time. More recently, science journalist and consultant Lawrence E. Joseph speculated that severe solar effects have the potential to knock 100 million people off the power grid for two years.

The sun is entering a highly active sunspot phase after an abnormally quiet period that lasted beyond the expected 11-year solar minimum. Unfortunately, the planets orbiting around it may be in for some interesting times through 2013 as the result. Earth's North American continent may bear the brunt of the onslaught with far-reaching consequences for its technologically developed nations.

Space Weather Basics

Solar flares are huge eruptions of hot gases and electromagnetic radiation resulting from storms on the sun's surface. The radiation races to the Earth in a matter of hours, disrupting radio communications and causing power grids to flicker briefly.

Flares are often followed by coronal mass ejections, highly charged electrical particles much larger than the original eruption. CMEs travel more slowly and take 24 to 48 hours to reach the Earth's atmosphere. Their speed and potential for producing catastrophic results depend on the initial speed of the preceding flare. Fortunately, only a portion of this energy reaches the Earth. The majority is deflected by the atmosphere and passes into space with few consequences to our planet.

However, given the right set of circumstances, we could experience conditions similar to those of the Carrington Event. The side of the Earth facing the sun during a strong CME event would be most affected but the entire globe would share in the consequences.

Long-term prediction of the occurrences and magnitude of solar flares and CMEs is in its infancy. Scientists and emergency services planners regard these events in much the same light as earthly hurricanes. They know that it is impossible to cover all the bases but they have developed tactics for mitigating the worst of the effects.

Power Grid

How is that the effects of a severe CME event could be so much more catastrophic today than they were in 1859? Our modern-day culture is heavily reliant on electricity to function, and the power grid is its Achilles' heel. This is particularly the case in the Northern Hemisphere and especially so in the United States. Most of its power generation and distribution facilities are located in northerly latitudes. If you've seen the aurora borealis, you probably live in a vulnerable area.

A direct hit with the energy from a CME grounds itself in the earth. This energy wreaks havoc on the normal transmission pathways of the power grid. Arcing, sparking and blowouts of electrical transformers are the result. A similar event in Canada in 1989 knocked out the grid in many areas for weeks. Since then, the North American power grid has grown in size and complexity.

Power distribution centers rely on huge transformers to step down the voltage to a level usable by industries and consumers. Once overwhelmed by the energy surge from a CME, they overload. Their internal windings actually melt as they did during the Canadian event. These transformers are huge and cannot be lifted out and replaced in one piece. Technicians would have to physically crawl inside them to repair any damage. Replacing a hopelessly damaged transformer requires a lead time of at least 12 months at present. There are hundreds of these in the United States and Canada and with industry crippled by the loss of the grid, manufacturing new transformers would take even longer.

The sheer size of the power distribution network precludes widespread shielding against a massive CME event. Therefore, engineers and scientists from NOAA and NASA have teamed up to work out a solution that everyone hopes will work.

Since shielding is impossible, the next best choice is disconnecting transformers and associated systems from the grid's wires. Of course, this would mean short-duration power outages in a densely populated region. On the other hand, this inconvenience would be a small price to pay when compared to the potential long-term effects. A few hours without electricity bears no comparison to plunging 100 million people back into the 19th century for a couple of years.

Grid engineers would require some advance warning to disconnect the power system. NOAA and NASA expect to be able to give them 24 to 48 hours' notice. NASA has put into orbit a series of satellites as a distant early warning system, the best-known being the Advanced Composition Explorers. The ACEs are NASA's equivalent of a canary in a coal mine

These satellites would be the first line of defense, sensing the magnitude of the energy pulse hurtling toward Earth. Data would be collected and transmitted to the supercomputers at the Goddard Space Center's Community Coordinated Modeling Center. If the computers' calculations indicated a severe disruption were likely, the CCMC and other organizations would alert grid engineers. Even with this cutting-edge technology, they would have 30 minutes or less to disconnect the grid.

Satellites, Spacecraft and Aircraft

The ACEs are specially designed to withstand high levels of radiation. On the other hand, navigational satellites and GPS birds do not have the same degree of shielding, nor do the navigational systems aboard spacecraft and commercial aircraft. The highly charged particles blasted from the sun in turn supercharge particles in the Earth's atmosphere. These particles are capable of corrupting the expected electrical impulses used by guidance and propulsion systems' computers.

This data corruption could potentially alter software commands to essential operating systems. If these were disrupted in a satellite's propulsion system, the bird's orbital speed could drop low enough to cause its spirally slowly out of orbit toward the Earth's surface. The same particles degrade the efficiency of solar panels powering spacecraft.

A CME's effects on a GPS extend downward from space as well. Financial systems use GPS to timestamp monetary transactions. Slowing down their computer clocks by even a fraction of second

Hardening satellites is possible and but very expensive. A more cost effective way to guard against their malfunction is similar to that employed to protect the power grid. Satellite owners, including governments, would shut down the crafts' nonessential systems until the geomagnetic storm passed.

Astronauts, commercial aircraft crews and passengers, and people living at altitudes above 10,000 feet would receive higher doses of ionizing radiation than anyone living near sea level. Depending on the severity of the CME event, exposures could range from near-normal up to the equivalent of receiving 100 chest X-rays.

Astronauts would be at greatest risk and are routinely monitored throughout their space careers for cumulative exposure. If the International Space Station were to take a direct CME hit, the crew would be warned in advance and advised to move to the better-shielded interior areas of the structure.

Earth Communications

Communications systems on Earth rely on electricity to operate. A power outage cuts off electricity to phone systems. While telecommunications providers are required to have generators for back-up power, generators eventually would run out of fuel.

The high level of charged particles would also disrupt transmission and reception across the radio frequency spectrum. Cell phones, shortwave and high-frequency radios, and satellite TV would experience disruptions for at least a few hours up to a few days even on the side of the Earth facing away from the CME. Not only would FM broadcasts be disrupted but also emergency responder radios, something that seemed to have happened on the U.S. Gulf Coast in early 2011 when the first of the solar bursts occurred.

Security cameras would likely experience degradation of images at least in the short term. Traffic signals operate on electronically controlled timers, so that daily commute could be even worse for a time.

WiFi signals are more or less immune to the effects on the radio spectrum. On the other hand, generating their radio waves depend on grid power. If that were disrupted, surfing the Internet for CME information would be out of the question.

In real terms, cell phones would not burst into flames. Computers would not lose their internal magic smoke. ET could still call home. The real issue would be getting the grid back online so there would be someone able to take the call.

Misconceptions

There is a lot of erroneous information floating around in popular culture. Internet forums are full of bad advice regarding protecting your head by wearing a reflective hat. Others tout generous applications of SPF 45 sunscreen. The truth is, the earth's atmosphere filters out most of the direct physical effects on humans.

People have been requesting the locations of video cameras for viewing the impact of the CME in their neighborhoods. Unfortunately, the really cool stuff will happen a few million miles out in space. They will see no apocalyptic sheets of flame in the streets unless they're standing too close to a power plant that didn't disconnect from the grid in time.

With enough advance warning, a CME or solar flare would result in relatively minor annoyances for most people. Lacking sufficient notice, the disruption of the power grid would create ramifications on a global scale because of technology's extreme reliance on electricity.