I don’t know if any of you know the old blues song from the 1930’s that goes "Once I lived the life of a millionaire…spending my money...I didn’t care. Taking my friends out for a mighty good time...buying bootleg liquor, champagne and wine. But then ooh...I fell so low...Had no friends and had no place to go..."
Today, it is as if the same song is being sung by the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar is being deserted one friend after another. One would expect the dollar to rally after its big decline, but it doesn't. WHY?
More and more countries that have aligned their currencies to the U.S. dollar are re-examining the so called U.S. dollar peg.
China is being forced to do so by European and U.S. pressure. Hong Kong speculators are attacking the Hong Kong dollar peg to the U.S. dollar and forcing the Hong Kong government to defend it at great expense.
The six Middle East countries pegged to the U.S. dollar (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar) that export a lot of oil and have historically tied their currencies to the U.S. dollar. This group has decided to institute a single currency by 2010.
Many other oil exporting nations have been interested in being paid Euros for their energy.
The new rich nations of the world that sell raw materials, or manufactured goods, are all wondering about the big buildup in dollars in their portfolios, and what they will do to diversify their risk. In addition to causing a decline in the value of their holdings, having too many dollars causes other problems.
When-non dollar nations accumulate large quantities of U.S. dollars, they must sterilize them to avert inflation (this is often done by buying U.S. dollar denominated debt). If the dollars are used to buy goods, it can end up importing inflation (especially if they buy goods from non dollar based countries that are rising in price).
Although the dollar can rally at any time, until the U.S. starts to face its fiscal and trade deficit problems, and the U.S. economy finds a bottom to the credit crisis...the currency will remain ‘Under Pressure’…(a popular 80’s pop song for those readers who may not be familiar with 1930’s blues tunes). CHINA AND SOME OTHER SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS ARE RAMPING UP THEIR STRATEGIC INVESTING IN METALS, ENERGY AND COMPANIES
Their focus is on acquiring mineral resources, energy resources and investments in private equity houses, where they can get big and cheap stakes in companies.
Today, it was announced that China is seeking to make major investments in a large number of private equity firms. This is logical, and it follows the pattern that they have set in the last few years. They have been accumulating MINERAL AND ENERGY assets in Africa and Latin America.
They do not mind investing in countries with corrupt governments or wars going on. They are more than happy to invest in stable African and Latin American countries like Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Brazil, Peru and others to secure raw materials. They are after nickel, coal, zinc, copper, iron ore, oil and precious metals.
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