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3 Big Lies
Home :: Finance :: Stocks, Bond & Forex
By: John M. Mcclure Email Article
Word Count: 1169 Digg it | Del.icio.us it | Google it | StumbleUpon it

  

So much of what you hear in the financial press these days is so wrong, that one must consider most financial television and print to be strictly for entertainment purposes only. In this article, we're going to examine more big lies constantly being pedaled by the so called "experts."

Big Lie #1: Buy Large Cap Stocks that Pay Dividends

The idea here is that you're buying "feel good stocks" like Coke, Wal-Mart, and Microsoft. The theory is that if these companies can't make it, no one can and that even if their shares don't appreciate, you'll make money on the dividends. But here's the real story:

--If you own Microsoft, you haven't made any money for the last seven years. But you have earned a dividend of .32% per year.

--Your shares in WalMart have been dead for six years but paid a 1.12% annual dividend.

--Coke lost you 20% from January, 2005, to January, 2006, but paid a 2.3% dividend.

--Perennial stalwart IBM lost more than 25% from 2001 to 2006 but eked out .90% in dividends.

I could go on and on, but you get the idea.

You'll probably never go broke investing in large caps, but you'll never get rich either. In fact, you'll be doing great just to keep up with inflation.

And if you decided to go with a large cap mutual fund, you've averaged 5.8% annualized returns over the last five years. Not terrible, but not great either. At 6% per year, even in a tax deferred retirement plan, it'll take you about 12 years to double your money. Taking inflation into account, it will take more than 20 years to double your money in today's dollars!

Big Lie #2: Buy Mutual Funds

Mutual funds are cash cows for the financial industry but they're rife with problems for investors like you and me.

Between December 31, 1992, and December 31, 2002, 10 years during which we enjoyed one of the biggest bull markets in history, nearly 80% of all mutual funds underperformed the market, costing investors billions of dollars in unclaimed profits.

And you get to pay for underperforming the market.

On top of the fees, you get capital gains taxes and the occasional scandal. All in all, not a very good deal.

The other major problem with mutual funds is that like stock picking, it's tough to be in the right sector at the right time.

In 2005, Latin America and Natural Resources were the big one year winners. Over the past three years, the top performers have been Natural Resources, Latin America and India. Over five years, the big money was made in Eastern Europe, Russia and Precious Metals. So unless you have a crystal ball and can pick the exact right sector to be in every year, you will, by definition, have some or all of your money underperforming the market at all times.

The one exception in the mutual fund morass is the group of enhanced index funds offered by Rydex and ProFunds. These offer an opportunity to double the performance of major market indices, either long or short, and can amplify your gains if traded properly with a proven trading system.

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John M. McClure is CEO and President of EquiTrend Inc., a stock market timing system that averages 42% profits per year. Mr. McClure is also a Registered Investment Advisor and President of the National Association of Active Investment Managers. http://www.equitrend.com

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