Oil is close to $100 per barrel but according to a Bloomberg survey of commodity analysts, the average expectation is for oil to be lower from this point forward. This could possibly be a function of lower US growth creating lower demand for energy.
The VIX 'fear' index is still below its November peak, which indicates that there may be more downside to come, however this could fall short of the all out capitulation many fear.
Therefore, a No Touch lower trade may be the better option for the rest of the month on the S&P500. The worst performance for the rest of the month following similar opening drops was -3% back in 1978. A No touch level set 6.5% below Friday’s closing price (1320) could return 11% over 30 days.
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