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Oil stocks and United States energy independence
Home :: Finance :: Stocks, Bond & Forex
By: Richard Stoyeck Email Article
Word Count: 1128 Digg it | Del.icio.us it | Google it | StumbleUpon it

  

In the 1970’s, our economy was much more intertwined with oil, and energy than it is today. We have learned to become more efficient with our machines and processes. Back then, we were propelled into a recession by the dramatic increase in oil prices. Europe went deeper into recession than we did. The lessons haven’t been forgetten, but they haven’t been learned either.

There has been no attempt by the United States for over 30 years to even begin a program of true energy independence. The answer is not to penalize efficiently run Exxon for knowing how to be extremely profitable. Remember the first principle of politics, people vote with their feet.

The Seven Sisters (giant oil companies) who controlled oil prices and policies for generations ceded that power in 1973 to the Arab states. Oil unfortunately is in all the bad neighborhoods of the world, and that’s not going to change. We are at the mercy of Arab pricing for a commodity that is the oxygen of our economy. If Arab oil stops shipping tomorrow, every car and truck, train, and plane would grind to a half shortly thereafter. The United States would have to go to war to maintain our economy and the bad guys know this. They will only push us so far, and no further.

The Arabs want our economy and our Western Europe friends to continue to grow. They want China, and the Pacific Rim to continue to grow. Only through growth can the world afford to pay for Arab oil. They do not want to gouge us, or anger us. It’s not in their interest. They do want to extract the maximum amount we are willing, and able to pay for a barrel of their liquid gold.

One of the consequences of this action is the position that GM finds itself in, and perhaps Ford is in a worse position. GM and Ford are selling cars with obsolete technology, fuel inefficiencies, in a world of Japanese competitors chomping at the bit waiting to assume the title of the largest car company in the world.

Our legacy airline companies are now in the position of having a profit statement that is inversely connected to the price of fuel. Eighteen months ago you could fly a 747 from California to Europe for $30,000 in fuel costs. Today the fuel cost is more than $100,000, and getting more expensive.

If the United States wants to achieve energy independence, we must do what France has done. Our electrical generation like France should become nuclear based over the next 15 years. For those who shudder, and cry when they hear the world nuclear, let them know that for more than 50 years the US Navy has had hundreds of vessels run by nuclear power and there has never been a nuclear incident with one of them.

Our cars have to be modeled along European lines. The Europeans have been paying more than $5 per gallons for years and they have learned to deal with it. If GM and Ford can’t handle the problem, the Japanese car companies will handle it for them. After all, the Japanese have been eating Detroit’s lunch for years. Why should it change?

Goodbye and good luck

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Richard Stoyeck’s background includes being a limited partner at Bear Stearns, Senior VP at Lehman Brothers, Kuhn Loeb, Arthur Andersen, and KPMG. Educated at Pace University, NYU, and Harvard University, today he runs Rockefeller Capital Partners and StocksAtBottom.com. http://www.stocksatbottom.com

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