All companies go through various cycles of growth at various speeds. This is also true in the way in which the stock market embraces them, and then spits them out, and throws them away. The market darling at the moment going through such a cycle is Dell Computer. This computer is now in the process of switching places with also-ran Hewlett-Packard which was out of favor for years.

Since Dell’s inception in the 1984 and later its public offering, the company could do no wrong. Its sales are now approaching $60 billion dollars and its number 25 on the Fortune 500. They have utilized a direct model approach to building PC’s since the beginning. This eliminated the middleman, and allowed you the customer to build your computer to order. In other words, you got a custom made machine. This is also the only company I have encountered with a negative cash conversion cycle. They get your money before they owe it to the vendors who sell them the parts. It’s literally unheard of in business.

How things can change in the blink of an eye

This company once had the finest customer service in the business. The whole deal was moved to India with disastrous effects. I have encountered no one, that’s right no one who has a decent word to say about Dell’s customer service. I have had several encounters myself with Dell’s version of customer service. Let me illustrate one. I had to spend a ridiculous period of time explaining my address. It’s simple I live in Westport, CT., but if you have ever tried to send a package to Europe, the addresses work differently. I can’t imagine, how they do addresses in Bangalore, India where these call centers are.

If a person has no feel for your culture and the way you conduct your life by being immersed in that culture, it’s comes right through on the telephone, and that’s Dell’s problem in India. A company replaces thousands of Americans with foreigners, and then thinks it’s going to be okay. What Dell doesn’t realize is that people vote with their feet, and they are now voting for Hewlett Packard, and other Dell competitors.

Exploding computers-Fires on Planes

Dell’s recall of several million computers because of exploding batteries illustrates how management has lost touch with reality. Years ago, Johnson and Johnson had a public relations nightmare over the tampering of several shipments of Tylenol. How JNJ handled the PR from this scandal is a showcase example that is studied daily in colleges across the country. Dell did not confront their exploding batteries problem directly. They dodged, they hemmed, and they yawed. This resulted in a tremendous loss of consumer confidence in the company that will take years to rebuild, if in fact they can rebuild it.

Who’s driving the bus?

Dell has now announced a 41% drop in their fiscal second-quarter profit, and now there are accounting issues facing the company. In their announcement Dell attributed the earnings decline to overly aggressive pricing. This is utter nonsense. The company should be more forthcoming about their problems. The aggressive pricing that they are alluding to is not reflected in the numbers I see. I have looked at both their desktop and notebook average selling prices for the last two quarters. They were flat on a sequential basis, so what are they talking about? Server ASP’s were even up on a sequential basis. The folks at Dell have to come up with a better story. On a year to year basis there are price declines in the desktop, notebook, and server ASP segments, but that’s not what Dell is saying.

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