How do you make sure that the heavy betting is by these big boys in the know? Check out the forums. If everyone there seems to say they are betting on one team but the betting odds prove that money is being poured on the other, you will know that the heavy betting is not done by the Joe Publics.

The bookies need to let the public win sometimes. When? When the action is low. When you see little action on popular favourites from the odds movement and the asian handicap is reasonably high against the favourites, you might choose to bet on the favourites then.

Examples

Note: For the study of odds movements, we approach match analysis with a conspiracy theory kind of angle and assume that bookmakers have insider knowledge or are almost able to know outcomes of games based on connections or highly qualified handicappers, researchers etc on their payroll or both.

Example 1.

EPL Match Day: 19 Mar 2005
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace 2.05 0 : 1 3/4 1.85

Analysis

Chelsea was giving the same 1.75 handicap to West Brom the previous EPL fixture and won the game 1-0 with a single goal from Didier Drogba. Chelsea was then leading the table with 8 points more than the nearest contender for the title, Man U. Expectations was that Chelsea would trash WBA, who was a relegation struggler. The very high and rather rare handicap of 1.75 given by the bookies seemed to confirm this fact. Punters lapped this up, confident of a sound trashing of WBA by Chelsea and bet on Chelsea despite the high handicap. Ever notice how top teams quite often (not always) beat bottom ones by small margins? Chelsea won 1-0.

Knowing that the memory of this was still fresh in the minds of punters, bookmakers posted the same opening handicap for Chelsea the following week at 1.75. Naturally, punters shied away from backing Chelsea this time, afraid of a similar scoreline with another relegation struggler, Crystal Palace. Some of them even bet on Palace, evidenced by slightly dropping prices on the underdog, thinking perhaps Chelsea were losing their form. This was even though they had won their previous game.

Score? Chelsea 4, Palace 1.

The bookies met two objectives with this match. They confused the public with the same handicap and the same team at different times and the favourites won heavily without much betting on them. Punters missed this opportunity to win from betting on their favourites but they noticed the scoreline and regained their confidence in the favourite again. Try not to get trapped in this hidden but vicious cycle.

Take note however, that on any matchday, there is seldom the case that all the favourites fail to clear the handicap, even when the public is betting heavily on them. Some will clear and some won't most match days. It is up to you to identify them based on researching the usual factors and the odds.

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