Example 2

UEFA Match Day: 17 Mar 2005
Sporting Lissabon vs Middlesbrough 2.05 0 : 1/2 1.85

When you see odds like these, you first have to recognize certain factors outside the movements of these odds.

Middlesbrough, in that season, was an upper mid-table team in the English Premier League, the most popular league worldwide. Sporting Lisbon is a fine team from Portugal but relatively unknown when compared to Middlebrough even though they have produced some of the best known names in football currently like Luis Figo and Cristiano Ronaldo.

People tend to bet on teams they know and think of less heard-of teams as not up to par.

We reason, 'Hey, if they're that good, I would have heard more of them, right?'

Well, we do not know the answer to that but we know that when a relatively well-known team is given a 0.5 handicap by a less-popular team, everybody bets on the popular team, confident that they can at least draw with the 'obscure' team.

Sporting Lisbon had won the previous reverse fixture 3-2. Punters were sure Boro would go all out to win this match to avoid disqualification from the UEFA Cup. Well, if so, why were the bookies so kind as to award Boro a 1/2-ball handicap?

This is the psychological function of the odds used to the fullest by the bookmakers to fool the public. A check with the odds confirm that prices on Middlesbrough are getting lower.

We do not know what the bookies know but the final score?

Sporting 1 Boro 0.

 

Example 3

SPL Match Day 20 Mar 2005

190305

Valencia vs Getafe 2.00 0 : 1 1.90

200305

Valencia vs Getafe 1.975 0 : 1 1.925

Valencia was 6th and Getafe 13th on the Primera Liga table. A one-ball handicap was a lot to give for a separation of just 7 places.

Valencia had just lost their last game and Getafe was getting known as a giant-killer, beating Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao and drawing with Deportivo and Real Betis recently the previous four games.

You have to question just why Valencia was giving a one-ball handicap when Getafe was in hot form. There the bookies go again.

Not much movement in the odds (above) to suggest heavy backing of Valencia by the public to warrant such a handicap.

Verdict: Bet Valencia

Final Score: Valencia 3 Getafe 1

Conclusion

There is no such thing as a foolproof method. Sometimes, even the bookies/big boys make mistakes or events occur which have not been expected. Also, sometimes the big bookies intentionally let the public have a good week or two (rarer and rarer though) -to let losses wipe out the smaller bookies and throw off anyone who's on to their game.

On the whole, however, it is a very accurate way to predict winners based on the number of winning bets this has produced for some pro-bettors.

Remember that mastering this is something of an artform and takes some time and experience to get good at. Hone your analytical skills and try to think like the bookie. This is not for every match so just be on the lookout for unusual activity.

As always, when unsure, lay off.

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