Since the PS3 is launching after the Xbox 360, no one is waiting around to see what the alternative will look like. They already know what the Xbox 360 is, what it can do, and what (some of) the games available for it are. As soon as the PS3 launches, the comparisons can begin. That wasn't possible when the Xbox 360 launched and everybody knew the PS3 was on its way.

The second reason why no parallel exists between the demand for Xbox 360s at launch and the demand for PS3s at launch is simply that there are more PS2s out there. As a result, Sony having as many units available by Christmas as Microsoft had the year before would be a lot like Gillette having as many new razors available as Schick had produced the year before. The difference in market share obliterates any possible comparison.

So, even though I think the PS3 is far too expensive going into the Christmas season, I'm quite sure that fact won't be evident in the sales numbers, because there will be a severe PS3 shortage throughout 2006. Even if the PlayStation 3 is too expensive, it will look like it's selling well, because there simply won't be enough of them produced in 2006.

Why am I so convinced the PS3 is priced too high?

The PS3 is too expensive to be a Christmas gift. Around Christmas, a lot of these consoles are bought by parents as gifts for their kids. Parents are willing to pay a lot for them, because they're a huge one-time item for the kid (and the parents have been hearing about it since well before the launch). But, the prices likely to be charged in 2006 for the PS3 are simply beyond what parents are willing to spend.

It's not an issue of how much consumers have to spend versus the value they're getting. It's an issue of being psychologically unprepared for paying this kind of price for any gift.

It may be a price older gamers are willing to pay to get a PS3 for themselves. But, it's not a price parents will be willing to spend on their kids.

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