Every Traditional Publisher should read the book by Nicholas Taleb called 'The Black Swan'. Not least because it's now a runaway best-seller and, in the fine tradition of that category, it was ignored by most publishers who were asked to publish it. If people who work at old-established publishing houses want to find the next best-seller, they could well take some advice from Mr Taleb in his important book.

You see, he stresses the value of the unexpected and the importance of the random. He also says that people aren't logical, even on the smallest things. He gives the example of asking the question: 'Which do you prefer, apples or oranges?' We might assume that there is only one answer, but some people can't even give that. Those that can, move on but get fooled at the next step. They are asked if they prefer pears to apples. If they say they do, they are asked if they therefore prefer pears to oranges. Some do, some don't. That's odd, they shouldn't say that. Who says? The logicians, and the people who invented the art of philosophy, going back to the Ancient Greeks. If you prefer one over the other, and a different one over that one, then you should prefer the first over the last. You really should. It's called logic. Unfortunately people don't operate as the textbooks predict they will.

Worse than that, it affects economics. These days the supermarkets are keen to know what you want, so they can plan ahead and get it on the shelves. So they ask people the apples and oranges question, over and over again, but are baffled when the oranges don't sell. They should, people said they wanted them. Unfortunately, those questioned do silly things, like change their minds. Or their circumstances change. Maybe a child leaves home, or a lodger arrives, and the household shopping starts to vary. Or, going back to the question, people have an annoying habit of saying yes, they really like oranges, then never eating them. Maybe they think they're good for them, and oranges need supporting. Whatever the reason, it drives the shop buyers wild. People are so unpredictable.

Meanwhile, back at the Traditional Publisher, an editor picks up manuscript A and decides he likes it. Then he starts on submission B and decides he likes it better. When he reads the third one on the pile, C, he's even more excited and thinks it's even better than B. Which means that he must think C is better than A, right? Well, maybe. But since they're all different, there might be different qualities at work, which means B is better than A, and C better than B, but only in some ways. If the editor's boss then says they can only afford to publish two books that month, do you think that means he will pick B and C, since he's decided they are 'better'? Not a bit of it. It depends on what every other Editor is doing, and what every other publisher on the block is doing too, come to that. So, A might get published after all. C might get put off, (you remember, the 'best' book), and might not even make it onto the list next month either. That's the way Traditional Publishing works. It's unpredictable. Plus, just to make things more 'human' and even less logical, it also depends what day of the week it is; whether a pay rise is in the offing; and what the Editor had for lunch. That's the way it is in those offices.

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