Passmore cautions that other factors could offset the trend in reduced driving — specifically, medical costs from bodily injury claims, legal costs relating to claims disputes and repair costs that are, for now, rising faster than the rate at which auto accident claims are going down.

Darn those repair, medical and legal costs! If it weren't for those, drivers could already be seeing lower auto insurance rates (as we sit at home). However, auto insurance companies generally agree that if we see significant auto accident reductions, lower auto insurance rates won't be too far behind.

Perhaps at the $6-a-gallon mark?

Will reduced driving mean lower auto insurance rates?

Insure.com asked the nation's top auto insurance companies whether high gas prices and reduced driving are translating to lower auto insurance rates yet. Here are their answers.

State Farm spokesperson Dick Luedke notes that State Farm auto insurance rates have been on the decline nationwide since 2004, but reduced auto accident claims are not yet leading directly to further auto insurance rate reductions: "Our actuaries look at claims data not just to see the recent past, but also to see what might change the future, like gas prices."

Luedke says there's no hard and fast rule as to what level of auto accident reduction would spark lower auto insurance rates, but says, "If we saw a reduction as big as 10 percent in accident frequency, we would have reacted long before that."

Allstate spokesperson Kate Hollcraft says, "We have just recently seen a decline in automobile claim frequency and if this continues through the summer months, we would probably be able to attribute it to a rise in fuel costs."

Progressive spokesperson Leah Knapp says, "We don't speculate about future rate changes, but it would be accurate to say that we continuously review market and business conditions, including monitoring losses, so that we can ensure our policies are accurately priced everywhere we do business. When our analysis suggests our rates require adjustment, we may seek to either raise or lower rates accordingly."

Nationwide Vice President & Policyholder, Standard Auto Product & Pricing, Larry Thursby, observes that "customers are having fewer accidents." But he notes it's been that way for a couple of years due to a variety of factors, like an aging population that becomes safer drivers, graduated licensing laws for teens and crackdowns in drunk driving. In addition, potential auto insurance rate reductions due to accident frequency are being offset by inflation in the usual suspects: medical and hospital costs, repair costs and legal costs.

Thursby says that Nationwide has been passing along cost savings by offering guaranteed renewability, lower surcharges and broader "forgiveness" for accidents, fender-benders and minor violations.

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