I will start off by saying that you should ALWAYS avoid heavy favorites. I suggest that you should not play the moneyline if it is at or above -140. The reason being that if a favorite loses on a -250 game it will put you upside down 2.5 units and that can take the baseball handicapper a good week or more to break even on.
I would like to suggest that you look at games from the underdog point of view. Once you get used to it, it actually becomes fun and you'll never go back to betting the favorites again.
The first thing that the baseball handicapper should look at are we pitching matchups. By doing this, you will spot value right off the bat where the underdog pitcher has a legit shot of being able to win the game based on a good to strong pitching performance.
By doing this, you will usually have only 3 or 4 games to start picking game apart. The things tolook for will include the pitchers ERA, WHIP, last few outings, how he has down vs. his opponent historically, a full pitcher vs. hitter statistical viewing to see how the opponents hit him over the course of their careers, how this pitcher does in today's environment which means how he performs in day/night games and outside/domes, how he does during this time of the year and we want to look at the last couple of days boxscores to make sure that his team's bullpen are not burnt out from overuse.
In addition, the baseball handicapper wants to see how that pitchers ERA and WHIP are at home or on the road, whichever pertains to the current game we're handicapping. Other things we look for is how the pitcher does vs. right and left handed batters then we try to estimate what the opponent will put on the field against him based on the opponents regulars and/or regular lineup vs. each arm of pitching.
Im sure your probably wondering by now where you can find all these stats without paying an arm and a leg. You'll be happy to know that these stats and even more can be found in the Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard Section simply by clicking on a players name in the boxscore or the daily previews.
The baseball handicapper next need to look at the hitters. You will want to check out how the team is hitting as a whole over the past few games and also see how each hitter does vs. the pitcher over the course of their career. Finally, you also want to check the box score close to gametime to make sure that all the expected bats are going to be in the game. hat's why I recommend not placing a bet on a game on the overnight line or early in the day and your lineup is missing some key players.
Handicapping baseball is a bit different than handicapping other sports. The reason for this is that stats are more are involved than in other sports.
While one could make a case for any one of a hundreds of stats to be factored into capping baseball game, such as:
Grass vs. Turf - With some pitchers this makes a difference in their performance
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