PRO INFO SPORTS takes all factors into consideration when handicapping sports investment opportunities for our Sports Handicapping Services, including the weather. We also strongly recommend clients give the "elements" a final check for any late-breaking developments prior to wagering, by reviewing our Weather Reports.
Atmospheric conditions can have a big impact on sporting events. In perceived football "mismatches", poor weather tends to lessen the advantage powerful teams have over weaker opponents. The underdogs' chances of keeping the games close or even pulling off the outright upsets are enhanced, especially by turnovers which occur with more frequency in bad-weather games. Just the threat of poor conditions can act as a great equalizer. Teams become more offensively conservative in order to avoid costly fumbles and interceptions. Either way, inclement weather in football usually portends defensive battles and low scores.
Sub-freezing temperatures generally restrain deep passing attacks, giving an advantage to football teams with superior running games or solid short-passing schemes. For baseball considerations, warm air is less dense, or thinner, than cold air. A would-be 400 ft shot at 75 degrees would carry 408 ft at 95 degrees.
Along with temperature, humidity has to be considered when factoring meteorological elements. An NFL team like the Miami Dolphins is conditioned to a hot and humid environment which is most extreme in the first month of the season. Take them out of their natural climate and their performance suffers, as shown by a large disparity in their September home record vs. December road games. Overall, teams from the South have the advantage when hosting a opponent not used to hot, humid conditions, while cold-weather squads from the North gain the edge when hosting warm-weather teams in chilly December weather.
Humidity can also affect a baseball game. According to Professor Robert Adair, the dean of baseball physicists, a baseball in a humid environment is actually heavier and less elastic than a dry ball, and, therefore, cannot be hit as far.
Wind is perhaps the most overlooked weather factor in sports handicapping. The importance of football special teams are amplified in bad weather, especially in windy conditions, as teams with superior kicking games have a distinct edge over an inferior kicking team. Meanwhile, teams that rely on passing games can be greatly affected by blustery conditions, especially if the winds are blowing across the field. In a game where there are strong winds blowing parallel to the direction of the field, one team will always have the wind at their backs, allowing them to pass the ball more easily; however, if the wind is blowing strongly across the field, this can hamper both teams' passing attack for the entire game.
In regards to baseball, air moving along in the same direction the ball is flying pushes back less on the ball, allowing it to travel farther. In fact, the wind is very often the single most important thing to consider about the weather when betting baseball totals. A 400 ft shot in calm conditions would turn into a 445 ft blast with a 15 mph wind directed out to center field.
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