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Shuffle Tracking
Home :: Sports & Recreations :: Casino-Gaming
By: On Jon Email Article
Word Count: 1093 Digg it | Del.icio.us it | Google it | StumbleUpon it

The reality is that even though most dealers seem accurate - they would need to be beyond realistically precise to use map tracking like this. No matter how accurate the dealer, if you don't use your eye to make adjustments, you ain't gonna win and very few people have the patience to train their eye to be as accurate as it needs to be.
Small errors shuffle tracking cost big bucks. If you are interested in shuffle tracking start off with Snyder's Cookbook then read alienated's post on the NRS formula over at the CCC - you can find the link in the thread just below this one. Neither of these will tell you everything you need to know, but they are a very good starting place. Before you do any of that though, make sure your counting is second nature.
Not every AP is a mentalist who is able to keep 12 different counts for each half deck throughout a shoe while playing, perform the shuffle transfer function on it, and get useful data for the next shoe but if you can do it, you can do it.

Not to get unnecessarily mathematical, but I did not use that phrase "transfer function" in vain. If you are mentally bored you can do a Google search on that phrase as well as "Fourier transform" to get a idea of the math used to solve a shuffle, and included in that math is the effect of the errors induced by dealer variability. (It's way worse math homework than NRS!)

To get a visual representation of this, make a bar graph that simulates a shoe- green bars going up to represent positive half-decks and red bars going down to represent negative half-decks. Nice picture, right? Now if you wear glasses, take them off, or if you don't put a pair of reading glasses on or do something to make your eyes go out of focus. What you are seeing is the effect of dealer grab variation and player deck estimation error. Not as clear, but you are still getting a lot of info from the graph. Back up, and the blurring gets worse, until you aren't getting any info from the graph at all. But once you get to that point, change the half-deck bars to full-deck, and you can see something again! Switch to two-deck bars, and you'll see where the best third and the worst third of the shoe is from quite a distance. Once you dig all this, you can come up with the best shuffle tracking procedure for your abilities and that particular shuffle.
Primes - the NRS formula isn't in itself a method for shuffle tracking, it is simply used to calculate the TC within a good packet and is actually far easier than it seems. A lot of it boils down to constants and if you have a few of the constants memorised for selected situation that you are likely to encounter its not actually that much more difficult to use than a TC calculation.
If you read the Cookbook, you'll learn the skills you need to be able to shuffle track sucessfully and why errors are so costly. Rather than trying to track the entire stack in the way you are suggesting you should be trying to track a specific packet of either good or bad cards through the shuffle and using this information to either cut a good packet into play (where you can bet high in the good packet) or cut the bad packet out of play (where you can bet highish through the whole shoe). And this is where your visual skills have to be up to par, so that you can ensure that the packet is where you think it is in the final stack and hasn't been split too much so as to have given weak or useless information.
Let's assume irregularity of the dealer grab sizes and errors in your deck estimation are there. They're there, and there's nothing you can do about it.

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