VFX – Daily Brief Wednesday 01/11/2006
In Brief:
Tim Drayson, global economist at ABN Amro Holding NV in London, says major central banks will all have to tighten credit more than investors now assume.
"Money supply on a global basis is growing quite rapidly as is overall credit growth,'' says Drayson, a former U.K. Treasury economist. ``We don't see much evidence that monetary policy around the world is restrictive.''
Drayson expects the ECB to lift its benchmark rate to 4 percent or higher by the end of 2007. The Fed's target rate will reach 6 percent, from 5.25 percent; the Bank of England's will rise to 5.5 percent from 4.75 percent; and the Bank of Japan's will go to 2 percent from 0.25 percent, Drayson forecasts.
Summary of Overnight News:
• The US dollar was higher against the yen and Euro in mid-afternoon trade though with players reluctant to push the
unit up too much ahead of tonight's ISM manufacturing survey and a speech by Federal Reserve chairman Ben
Bernanke, dealers said.
• The FTSE-100 is expected to open 3.5 points up this morning for the start of the month, following little
movement in New York last night
• Overnight, US stocks ended mixed, with the market uneasy after the Conference Board said its index of consumer
confidence fell to 105.4 from 105.9 in September -- well below the 107.8 analysts expected -- raising concerns on
• Meanwhile, in Asia this morning, indices diverged as Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index closed 24.13 points lower at
16,375.26 but Hong Kong's Hang Seng was 123.52 points to the good at 18,447.87 by midday.
• Signs of weakness in the US economy, the world's largest user of energy, are now having more of an effect on crude
prices, dealers said, while oil prices are also being weighed down by expectations of warmer weather in the US,
which could lead to a drop in demand for heating fuel.
USA
Figures out Today:
• 15:00 US Construction spending, %m/m Sep Exp 0.3 vs Prev 0.0
• 15:00 US ISM manufacturing PMI Oct Exp 52.9 vs Prev 53.0
Figures out Today:
• 09:30 UK Manufacturing PMI Oct Exp 54.4 vs Prev 53.8
EURO US DOLLAR @ 1.2750 GB POUNDS US DPLLAR @ 1.9065 GB POUND EURO @ 1.4958 USJPY @ 117.05
VFX – Daily Brief Thursday 02/11/2006
In Brief:
The focus will be on the euro this morning with a host of PMI surveys due for release after yesterday’s public holiday, and the ECB due to meet later today. No interest rate changes are expected but Mr Trichet is likely to signal a rate hike is on the cards for December, with the use of the term “strong vigilance” in his press conference. The market will also be most interested to see if he has anything to say about the setting of monetary policy in 2007.
Summary of Overnight News:
• The US dollar continued to make inroads into the yen and Euro's recent gains as traders take profits ahead of the
key non-farm payrolls data due in the US on Friday, dealers said.
• The FTSE-100 will open down 28 points, echoing losses last night in New York, as investors continue to fret
over the economic health of the US.
• Wall Street closed lower as the latest batch of economic data revealed manufacturing growth was at its slowest
in more than three years and that the housing market continues to struggle.
• The DJIA fell 49.71 to 12,031.02, the Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 10.13 to 1,367.81, and the NASDAQ
slipped 32.36 to 2,334.35.
• And today, ahead of Friday's October non-farm payroll numbers, investors will eye the latest serving of
economic data, including US weekly jobless claims and third quarter factory orders.
• Meanwhile, the downbeat mood spilled over into Asia this morning, as the Nikkei 225 index closed down 25.24
at 16,350.02, while the Hang Seng was off 50.54 at 18,504.19 by midday.
• Still in Asia, oil prices were relatively unchanged with the latest US energy stockpiles offering little incentive to
boost interest.
USA
Figures out Today:
• 13:30 US Non-farm productivity, % Q3-p Exp 1.6 vs Prev 1.0
• 13:30 US Unit labour costs, % Q3-p Exp 4.9 vs Prev 3.4
• 13:30 US Jobless claims, k w/e 28/10 Exp 308 vs Prev 310
• Dollar slides after manufacturing data: More disappointing data on the state of the world’s largest economy
sent the dollar reeling again on Wednesday. The greenback fell to fresh one-month lows against the Euro and
the yen and dropped to its lowest level so far this year against sterling after the Institute for Supply
Management’s survey on the US manufacturing sector came in weaker than forecast, registering its lowest
reading since June 2003. Analysts said the figures were just the latest in a string of recent weak economic data
from the US.
Europe:
Figures out Today:
• 08:55 GE Unemployment rate, sa Oct Exp 10.6 vs Prev 10.5
• 08:50 FR PMI manufacturing Oct Exp 56.0 vs Prev 56.3
• 09:00 EA PMI manufacturing Oct Exp 56.6 vs Prev 56.8
• 12:45 EA ECB rate announcement Oct Exp 3.25 vs Prev 3.25
• 15:00 US Factory orders, %m/m Oct Exp 0.0 vs Prev 4.0
• The main event of the day in the Euro area is the ECB press conference. Most expect the ECB to reiterate
that monetary policy decisions will remain conditional on the baseline scenario materialising.
South Africa
• ONE swallow doesn't make a summer. And one month's trade figures don't mean that SA no longer has a
balance of payments (BoP) problem. But tell that to the currency market, where the rand firmed 10 cents in the
blink of an eye on Tuesday after the release of the September trade data. The customs and excise figures show
that the trade deficit narrowed to a tiny R175m in September, from a whopping R5.3bn and R7.7bn in the
previous two months. The market cheered the 8.4% decline in imports and 4.6% rise in exports.
www.fin24.com
EURO US DOLLAR @ 1.2758 GB POUND US DOLLAR @ 1.9055 GB POUNDS EURO @ 1.4935 USDJPY @ 117.15
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